Some time ago I commented on the specious precision of a weather forecast that I once heard in America. Today I have heard on half a dozen news programs something that relates to it, something I call the "only an estimate" defence.
Six months ago the weather forecasters were all agreeing that we were in for a summer of sunshine, cloudless skies and balmy evening barbecues. As I sit here typing I'd say that if there have been any days in the last couple of months when we didn't have heavy rain, then I must have blinked and missed them. The Meteorological Office has just revised its prediction for the summer to suggest, now that we are half way through it, that it won't be sunny - it will rain a lot. This has triggered a reaction in every news programme where the weather forecasters are all being asked the same question, "How come you got it wrong?"
Their answer is perfectly predictable. They didn' get it wrong. They said there was a good chance of a sunny summer. A sixty-five per cent chance, for those who enjoy specious accuracy, and all that's happened is that the weather has fallen into the remaining thirty-five percent. Of course the same would have been true for a seventy-five, eight-five or even ninety-nine point nine percentage.
Naturally nobody was saying that six months ago. The specious precision of their original predictions, which were being constantly proclaimed with such bright optimism is now being used as their defence.
It would be nice if they just put their hands up and said, "We were guessing, it's what we do. We have no more idea than you do."
Six months ago the weather forecasters were all agreeing that we were in for a summer of sunshine, cloudless skies and balmy evening barbecues. As I sit here typing I'd say that if there have been any days in the last couple of months when we didn't have heavy rain, then I must have blinked and missed them. The Meteorological Office has just revised its prediction for the summer to suggest, now that we are half way through it, that it won't be sunny - it will rain a lot. This has triggered a reaction in every news programme where the weather forecasters are all being asked the same question, "How come you got it wrong?"
Their answer is perfectly predictable. They didn' get it wrong. They said there was a good chance of a sunny summer. A sixty-five per cent chance, for those who enjoy specious accuracy, and all that's happened is that the weather has fallen into the remaining thirty-five percent. Of course the same would have been true for a seventy-five, eight-five or even ninety-nine point nine percentage.
Naturally nobody was saying that six months ago. The specious precision of their original predictions, which were being constantly proclaimed with such bright optimism is now being used as their defence.
It would be nice if they just put their hands up and said, "We were guessing, it's what we do. We have no more idea than you do."
3 comments:
We were guessing. It's what we do. We have no more idea than you do. Like astrologers.
Personally I always say you can't go wrong with goats' entrails.
With regard to the weather here, one is able to guess that it won't rain for the next two, three maybe even four weeks.
Something I really miss, being from Northgermany.
Wish you a pleasant and sunny weekend.
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