On wordcraft, tinman posted this link to a blog entry by Marty Manly. Before you click it, have a look at the question it's trying to answer.
Do you think that these things are getting better or worse in the world?
1. War
2. Disease
3. Global Poverty
4.Public Safety
5. Crime
6. Teenage drug abuse
7. Abortions
8. Welfare
9. Teenage pregnancies
10. School test scores
Think about your views before you either look at his or read further here.
It's a very interesting article but I think he's missed a couple of points that I'd like to add, a couple other effects that the article doesn't touch on but that happen a lot when people are asked if things are getting worse - Immediacy and Report Availability.
War is a perfect example of the first.
At the moment both America and Britain are involved in two very high profile wars (though we don't use the W-word to describe them) - in Iraq and Afghanistan. Because we are directly involved and because they are taking place right now we perceive the problem of "War" as being on the increase. Wars that are over, especially if they didn't involve us as one of the central participants, are forgotten. They are done and gone and not immediate enough to demand our attention. The current wars are ongoing so "War is getting worse."
A good example of the problem of Report Availability is Crime. Crime isn't any worse now than it ever was but what is worse (or better, if you look at it in a certain light) is that we hear more about it. Television, newspapers and so on take the smallest crime and tell us about it. The best example of how this colours our views is one not in the list - child abuse (and especially child abduction). It has always been and, given the nature of society, probably always will be, the case that the overwhelming majority of child abuse takes place within the family. Child abductions are actually statistically very rare occurrences BUT a family member interfering with a child is often hushed up, or the child not believed and in any case is a much less scary story than a stranger taking your child. The newspapers give scant coverage to the former unless there are other lurid details involved but trumpet it in banner headlines if a child is thought to have been abducted. This has led to culture of terror among parents who are often afraid to let their children play outside, even in their own garden, for fear of it. We hear more about the problem than we did fifty or a hundred years ago not because the problem is worse but because the reporting is better. Because we hear more about it, it must be worse.
I could go through the others in the list but truthfully, even before I read the article, I didn't think any were actually significantly better or worse than they have been in the past.
Do you think that these things are getting better or worse in the world?
1. War
2. Disease
3. Global Poverty
4.Public Safety
5. Crime
6. Teenage drug abuse
7. Abortions
8. Welfare
9. Teenage pregnancies
10. School test scores
Think about your views before you either look at his or read further here.
It's a very interesting article but I think he's missed a couple of points that I'd like to add, a couple other effects that the article doesn't touch on but that happen a lot when people are asked if things are getting worse - Immediacy and Report Availability.
War is a perfect example of the first.
At the moment both America and Britain are involved in two very high profile wars (though we don't use the W-word to describe them) - in Iraq and Afghanistan. Because we are directly involved and because they are taking place right now we perceive the problem of "War" as being on the increase. Wars that are over, especially if they didn't involve us as one of the central participants, are forgotten. They are done and gone and not immediate enough to demand our attention. The current wars are ongoing so "War is getting worse."
A good example of the problem of Report Availability is Crime. Crime isn't any worse now than it ever was but what is worse (or better, if you look at it in a certain light) is that we hear more about it. Television, newspapers and so on take the smallest crime and tell us about it. The best example of how this colours our views is one not in the list - child abuse (and especially child abduction). It has always been and, given the nature of society, probably always will be, the case that the overwhelming majority of child abuse takes place within the family. Child abductions are actually statistically very rare occurrences BUT a family member interfering with a child is often hushed up, or the child not believed and in any case is a much less scary story than a stranger taking your child. The newspapers give scant coverage to the former unless there are other lurid details involved but trumpet it in banner headlines if a child is thought to have been abducted. This has led to culture of terror among parents who are often afraid to let their children play outside, even in their own garden, for fear of it. We hear more about the problem than we did fifty or a hundred years ago not because the problem is worse but because the reporting is better. Because we hear more about it, it must be worse.
I could go through the others in the list but truthfully, even before I read the article, I didn't think any were actually significantly better or worse than they have been in the past.
2 comments:
Good morning Bob,
first of all allow me to welcome you aboard. Hope that you will enjoy the journey through life, sometimes bumpy, sometimes in need of wind to move the ship forward.
With regard to the question, allow me to answer them nearly all with 'worse'. Sad as that may be. Living in the same street with a drug dealer, seeing many users around etc.
Nevertheless, am ready to take up the 'fight' and will try every day to do something to make it 'better'.
Please have a nice weekend.
BTW - hope you found your link too!
The interesting thing is the gap between perception and reality. Most people have an instinct that all those things are getting worse when in fact the statistics show that they are either getting better or staying about the same. I believe it's the recency illusion at work. When you notice something once, or when it is brought to your attention you suddenly start seeing it everywhere because you have been "tuned in to it". This gives you the idea that it's getting worse when in fact all that's happened is that you are noticing it more.
It doesn't mean that we shouldn't fight to make them better though.
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